Gold crosses $4,300 on safe-haven demand

Spot gold was up 2.6% at $4,316.99 per ounce after bullion hit a record high of $4,318.75 earlier

Gold hit a record high for the fourth straight session on Thursday and soared past $4,300 an ounce as investors flocked to the safe-haven metal on escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.

Spot gold was up 2.6% at $4,316.99 per ounce as of 2007 GMT after bullion hit a record high of $4,318.75 earlier.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 2.5% higher at $4,304.60, after hitting a record high of $4,335/oz.

The yellow metal has gained more than 60% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical tensions, aggressive rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarisation and robust ETF inflows.

Gold’s trajectory will hinge on the rate-cut picture heading into 2026 as well as the developments around U.S.-China. If no deal is reached between the U.S.-China and the relationship continues to deteriorate, that could be the spark gold needs to cross the $5,000/oz barrier, said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

Investors this week have stayed focused on the simmering China-U.S. trade spat, with Washington on Wednesday criticizing China’s expanded rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains.

Traders are pricing in a 25 basis-point U.S. central bank rate cut in October, and another in December, with probabilities of 98% and 95%, respectively.

Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Short-term pullbacks in gold are likely to be temporary, as bullish investors tend to use dips to re-enter positions, Vawda said.

HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,355 an ounce on Wednesday, citing safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and a weaker U.S. dollar.