Cryptocurrency market going through heightened volatilitywritten by Bella Palmer
According to a recent report by Arcane Research, the current drawdown has been going on for 229 days and has thus far seen a maximum drawdown of 73%
The crypto market is currently going through a period of heightened volatility as global economic conditions continue to worsen amid a backdrop of rising inflation and interest rates.
As the headwinds impacting global financial markets beat down all traces of bullish sentiment, many crypto investors are predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) price could drop to as low as $10,000 before a market bottom is found.
Insight into how BTC may perform in the short-term can be gleaned by looking at its performance during the bear market cycles of 2013 and 2017. In 2013, the maximum drawdown for Bitcoin was 85%, which took place over a period of 407 days. The maximum drawdown in 2017 was 84% and this period lasted for 364 days.
The current drawdown has been going on for 229 days and has thus far seen a maximum drawdown of 73%, according to a recent report by Arcane Research.
Arcane Research said: If Bitcoin follows the blueprint of these cycles, a bottom should occur sometime in late Q4 2022, at a price as low as $10,350.
While there is always a chance that an 85% pullback is a possibility, Arcane Research also noted that ‘Bitcoin is now far more intertwined in the broad financial markets, with the Fed, U.S. elections, crypto regulations and stock market impacting its performance.’
Further evidence that supports the possibility of a drop to the $10,000 range was touched upon by cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, which noted that ‘from a high timeframe market structure perspective, the next place we have to be looking at is $10K–$12K.’
Delphi Digital said: Coincidentally, this area lines up with the implied low if BTC experiences an 85% drawdown from peak to trough.
However, not every analyst expects a drop to $10,000. For example, Will Clemente of Blockware Solutions. According to Clemente, Bitcoin's current range reflects a good spot for accumulation.
Additional data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, balance price and delta price in its bear market floor model align with the 0.6 Mayer Multiple metric analysed by Clemente.
Only 13 out of 4,360 trading days (0.2%) have ever seen similar circumstances, occurring in just two prior events, Jan 2015 and March 2020, Glassnode said.
Based on the Delta price metric, which still remains untouched, the potential low for BTC is $15,750.
According to John Bollinger, the creator of the popular Bollinger Bands, trading indicator also suggested that Bitcoin price may have bottomed.
This article is for information purposes only.
Please remember that financial investments may rise or fall and past performance does not guarantee future performance in respect of income or capital growth; you may not get back the amount you invested.
There is no obligation to purchase anything but, if you decide to do so, you are strongly advised to consult a professional adviser before making any investment decisions.