Oil hits four-month lows on oversupply concerns

Brent crude futures dropped $1.24, or 1.9%, to settle at $64.11 a barrel, the lowest since June 2

Oil prices settled down about 2% at the lowest in four months on Thursday, extending a run of declines into a fourth day amid concerns about oversupply in the market ahead of a meeting of the OPEC+ group over the weekend.

Brent crude futures dropped $1.24, or 1.9%, to settle at $64.11 a barrel, the lowest since June 2.

OPEC+ could agree to raise oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, triple the increase for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share, three sources familiar with the talks said.

We believe September marked a turning point, with the oil market now heading towards a sizeable surplus in 4Q25 and into next year, JPMorgan analysts wrote on Thursday.

Potentially higher OPEC+ supply, slowing global refinery crude runs due to maintenance and a seasonal dip in demand in the months ahead are set to accelerate oil stock builds, the JPMorgan analysts said.

The writing is on the wall, investment research firm HFI Research wrote in a blog post. US oil inventories will build into year-end, and more global visible inventory builds will take place. Couple that with higher OPEC+ crude exports, and the end result is a persistently weaker oil market environment, they wrote.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week as refining activity and demand softened.

Oversupply concerns have been compounded by signs of weak demand, PVM Energy analysts wrote. Oil demand forecasts diverge considerably, but on average, they show this year’s figure revised down by 150,000 bpd between January and September, they said.

Stockpiling demand from China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, also limited the downside to oil prices, traders said.