OPEC+ agrees to output hike for December
The eight members of the exporter group undertaking voluntary production cuts decided at their monthly meeting on Sunday to lift their output target by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December
OPEC+ managed to both meet market expectations and deliver a surprise by agreeing to a small rise in crude oil output for December, but then pausing for the first quarter of next year.
The eight members of the exporter group undertaking voluntary production cuts decided at their monthly meeting on Sunday to lift their output target by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December.
This matched market expectations and continued the recent pattern of modest increases seen in October and November.
The eight OPEC+ members, which includes Russia, have now raised output targets by about 2.9 million bpd, about 2.7% of global supply, since April.
However, the group said they would pause any increase in targets for the first three months of 2026, despite sticking to their oft-expressed view of a “steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals”.
The stated reason for suspending any further production hikes in the first quarter of next year was about as upbeat as bearish news can be presented.
Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026, OPEC+ said in a statement.
It is correct that the first quarter tends to be softer from a demand perspective, but it’s also likely that OPEC+ is putting a positive spin on what is an uncertain outlook for both global oil demand and supply.
There is a high degree of divergence between the forecasts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency (IEA) for next year.
OPEC’s monthly report in October forecast 2026 oil demand growth at 1.38 million bpd and that demand and supply growth will be largely balanced.
The IEA expects 2026 demand to rise by 700,000 bpd but a surge in supply will lead to a surplus of as much as 4 million bpd, the agency said in its October monthly report.